Target Price Playground
AMD
$530.76
๐ข
AMD IV: 69.8% โ LOW
(-25.0% vs 30d avg of 93.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $590 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $530 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $70.47 ยท ฮ 0.57
SHORT CALL ยท $570 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $52.2 ยท ฮ 0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $590 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$2,173 (118.9%) on $1,827 risked, vs +$5,924 (11.2%) for 100 shares on $53,076. Options give 10.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $590. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $590 by Aug 21
+$2,173
+118.9% on $1,827 risked
Max Profit
+$2,173
If the stock โฅ $570 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,827
Net debit
Break-even
$548.27
+3.3% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.19 / -1.27 / -3.63
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $425 (-20%) | -$1,168 | -$1,313 | -$1,563 | -$1,827 |
| $451 (-15%) | -$954 | -$1,084 | -$1,344 | -$1,827 |
| $478 (-10%) | -$720 | -$818 | -$1,042 | -$1,827 |
| $504 (-5%) | -$473 | -$526 | -$671 | -$1,827 |
| $520 (-2%) | -$323 | -$344 | -$426 | -$1,827 |
| $531 (0%) โ spot | -$223 | -$222 | -$257 | -$1,751 |
| $541 (+2%) | -$123 | -$100 | -$86 | -$689 |
| $557 (+5%) | +$26 | +$82 | +$168 | +$903 |
| $584 (+10%) | +$265 | +$375 | +$573 | +$2,173 |
| $590 (+11%) โ target | +$319 | +$440 | +$662 | +$2,173 |
| $610 (+15%) | +$492 | +$648 | +$936 | +$2,173 |
| $637 (+20%) | +$703 | +$896 | +$1,245 | +$2,173 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.