Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $560 by Aug 21: the cash-secured put returns +$4,362 (9.8%) on $-4,362 credit (max loss $44,638), vs +$2,924 (5.5%) for 100 shares on $53,076. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $560. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $425 (-20%) | -$4,781 | -$3,996 | -$3,054 | -$2,177 |
| $451 (-15%) | -$3,256 | -$2,355 | -$1,200 | +$477 |
| $478 (-10%) | -$1,932 | -$957 | +$330 | +$3,130 |
| $504 (-5%) | -$800 | +$208 | +$1,536 | +$4,362 |
| $520 (-2%) | -$205 | +$803 | +$2,114 | +$4,362 |
| $531 (0%) โ spot | +$158 | +$1,159 | +$2,444 | +$4,362 |
| $541 (+2%) | +$496 | +$1,485 | +$2,733 | +$4,362 |
| $560 (+6%) โ target | +$1,032 | +$1,989 | +$3,153 | +$4,362 |
| $584 (+10%) | +$1,621 | +$2,521 | +$3,553 | +$4,362 |
| $610 (+15%) | +$2,165 | +$2,986 | +$3,856 | +$4,362 |
| $637 (+20%) | +$2,609 | +$3,343 | +$4,053 | +$4,362 |