Target Price Playground
AMD
$530.76
๐ข
AMD IV: 69.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 93.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $570 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $530.76 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $570 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $52.2 ยท ฮ 0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $570 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$9,144 (19.1%) on $47,856 risked, vs +$3,924 (7.4%) for 100 shares on $53,076. Options give 2.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $570. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $570 by Aug 21
+$9,144
+19.1% on $47,856 risked
Max Profit
+$9,144
If the stock โฅ $570 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$47,856
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$478.56
-9.83% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
51.97 / 54.33 / -90.21
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $425 (-20%) | -$6,793 | -$6,151 | -$5,587 | -$5,395 |
| $451 (-15%) | -$4,796 | -$3,984 | -$3,164 | -$2,741 |
| $478 (-10%) | -$2,971 | -$1,999 | -$911 | -$88 |
| $504 (-5%) | -$1,322 | -$213 | +$1,121 | +$2,566 |
| $520 (-2%) | -$418 | +$759 | +$2,217 | +$4,158 |
| $531 (0%) โ spot | +$150 | +$1,365 | +$2,893 | +$5,220 |
| $541 (+2%) | +$690 | +$1,937 | +$3,523 | +$6,282 |
| $557 (+5%) | +$1,449 | +$2,734 | +$4,383 | +$7,874 |
| $570 (+7%) โ target | +$2,012 | +$3,317 | +$4,997 | +$9,144 |
| $584 (+10%) | +$2,585 | +$3,903 | +$5,594 | +$9,144 |
| $610 (+15%) | +$3,568 | +$4,885 | +$6,546 | +$9,144 |
| $637 (+20%) | +$4,413 | +$5,700 | +$7,270 | +$9,144 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.