Target Price Playground
AMD
$530.76
๐ข
AMD IV: 69.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 93.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $500 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $530 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $74.85 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $500 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $48.85 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $500 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$3,168 (121.9%) on $2,600 risked, vs $-3,076 (-5.8%) for 100 shares on $53,076. Options give 21.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $500. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $500 by Aug 21
+$3,168
+121.9% on $2,600 risked
Max Profit
+$3,121
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$2,036
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$573.56
+8.06% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
85%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-6.05 / 5.79 / 19.34
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $425 (-20%) | +$490 | +$668 | +$914 | +$902 |
| $451 (-15%) | +$438 | +$646 | +$990 | +$1,447 |
| $478 (-10%) | +$351 | +$570 | +$966 | +$2,235 |
| $500 (-6%) โ target | +$252 | +$464 | +$860 | +$3,104 |
| $520 (-2%) | +$146 | +$340 | +$701 | +$2,040 |
| $531 (0%) โ spot | +$85 | +$265 | +$597 | +$1,541 |
| $541 (+2%) | +$20 | +$184 | +$480 | +$1,083 |
| $557 (+5%) | -$82 | +$55 | +$288 | +$472 |
| $584 (+10%) | -$262 | -$177 | -$64 | -$365 |
| $610 (+15%) | -$450 | -$421 | -$428 | -$1,002 |
| $637 (+20%) | -$639 | -$665 | -$781 | -$1,477 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.