Target Price Playground
AMD
$530.76
๐ข
AMD IV: 69.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 93.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $590 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $530 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $70.47 ยท ฮ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $590 by Aug 21: the long call returns $-1,047 (-14.9%) on $7,047 risked, vs +$5,924 (11.2%) for 100 shares on $53,076. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $590. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $590 by Aug 21
$-1,047
-14.9% on $7,047 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$7,047
Premium paid
Break-even
$600.47
+13.13% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.22 / -55.6 / 86.57
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $425 (-20%) | -$4,989 | -$5,777 | -$6,591 | -$7,047 |
| $451 (-15%) | -$4,118 | -$5,061 | -$6,141 | -$7,047 |
| $478 (-10%) | -$3,057 | -$4,127 | -$5,439 | -$7,047 |
| $504 (-5%) | -$1,805 | -$2,967 | -$4,446 | -$7,047 |
| $520 (-2%) | -$967 | -$2,165 | -$3,705 | -$7,047 |
| $531 (0%) โ spot | -$372 | -$1,587 | -$3,150 | -$6,971 |
| $541 (+2%) | +$249 | -$975 | -$2,548 | -$5,909 |
| $557 (+5%) | +$1,231 | +$2 | -$1,561 | -$4,317 |
| $584 (+10%) | +$2,989 | +$1,780 | +$287 | -$1,663 |
| $590 (+11%) โ target | +$3,417 | +$2,217 | +$748 | -$1,047 |
| $610 (+15%) | +$4,885 | +$3,724 | +$2,352 | +$990 |
| $637 (+20%) | +$6,905 | +$5,811 | +$4,590 | +$3,644 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.