Target Price Playground
AMD
$530.76
๐ข
AMD IV: 69.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 93.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $465 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $530 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $63.07 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $465 by Aug 21: the long put returns +$193 (3.1%) on $6,307 risked, vs $-6,576 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $53,076. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $465. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $465 by Aug 21
+$193
+3.1% on $6,307 risked
Max Profit
+$46,693
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$6,307
Premium paid
Break-even
$466.93
-12.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.22 / -50.07 / 86.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $425 (-20%) | +$5,873 | +$5,222 | +$4,545 | +$4,232 |
| $451 (-15%) | +$4,090 | +$3,284 | +$2,341 | +$1,578 |
| $465 (-12%) โ target | +$3,236 | +$2,358 | +$1,288 | +$193 |
| $478 (-10%) | +$2,499 | +$1,565 | +$390 | -$1,075 |
| $504 (-5%) | +$1,096 | +$70 | -$1,272 | -$3,729 |
| $520 (-2%) | +$343 | -$719 | -$2,122 | -$5,321 |
| $531 (0%) โ spot | -$125 | -$1,203 | -$2,629 | -$6,307 |
| $541 (+2%) | -$565 | -$1,653 | -$3,089 | -$6,307 |
| $557 (+5%) | -$1,176 | -$2,268 | -$3,695 | -$6,307 |
| $584 (+10%) | -$2,072 | -$3,144 | -$4,501 | -$6,307 |
| $610 (+15%) | -$2,828 | -$3,854 | -$5,089 | -$6,307 |
| $637 (+20%) | -$3,463 | -$4,421 | -$5,504 | -$6,307 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.