Target Price Playground
AMD
$530.76
๐ข
AMD IV: 69.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 93.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $590 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $530.76 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $590 by Aug 21: the long stock returns +$5,924 (11.2%) on $53,076 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Aug 21.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $590 by Aug 21
+$5,924
+11.2% on $53,076 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$53,076
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$530.76
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Jul 18 | Aug 17 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $425 (-20%) | -$10,615 | -$10,615 | -$10,615 |
| $451 (-15%) | -$7,961 | -$7,961 | -$7,961 |
| $478 (-10%) | -$5,308 | -$5,308 | -$5,308 |
| $504 (-5%) | -$2,654 | -$2,654 | -$2,654 |
| $520 (-2%) | -$1,062 | -$1,062 | -$1,062 |
| $531 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $541 (+2%) | +$1,062 | +$1,062 | +$1,062 |
| $557 (+5%) | +$2,654 | +$2,654 | +$2,654 |
| $584 (+10%) | +$5,308 | +$5,308 | +$5,308 |
| $590 (+11%) โ target | +$5,924 | +$5,924 | +$5,924 |
| $610 (+15%) | +$7,961 | +$7,961 | +$7,961 |
| $637 (+20%) | +$10,615 | +$10,615 | +$10,615 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.