Target Price Playground
AMD
$537.37
๐ข
AMD IV: 69.8% โ LOW
(-25.0% vs 30d avg of 93.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $590 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $537.37 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $510 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $53.2 ยท ฮ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $590 by Aug 21: the protective put returns $-57 (-0.1%) on $59,057 risked, vs +$5,263 (9.8%) for 100 shares on $53,737.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $590. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $590 by Aug 21
$-57
-0.1% on $59,057 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$8,057
Put floors you at $510
Break-even
$590.57
+9.9% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
61.6 / -47.66 / 84.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $430 (-20%) | -$5,810 | -$6,558 | -$7,418 | -$8,057 |
| $457 (-15%) | -$4,764 | -$5,647 | -$6,749 | -$8,057 |
| $484 (-10%) | -$3,515 | -$4,494 | -$5,772 | -$8,057 |
| $511 (-5%) | -$2,072 | -$3,105 | -$4,471 | -$8,007 |
| $527 (-2%) | -$1,118 | -$2,163 | -$3,539 | -$6,395 |
| $537 (0%) โ spot | -$446 | -$1,493 | -$2,859 | -$5,320 |
| $548 (+2%) | +$251 | -$790 | -$2,134 | -$4,245 |
| $564 (+5%) | +$1,344 | +$320 | -$970 | -$2,633 |
| $590 (+10%) โ target | +$3,199 | +$2,223 | +$1,056 | -$57 |
| $618 (+15%) | +$5,348 | +$4,446 | +$3,441 | +$2,741 |
| $645 (+20%) | +$7,523 | +$6,705 | +$5,865 | +$5,427 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.