Target Price Playground
AMD
$530.76
๐ข
AMD IV: 69.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 93.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $610 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $530 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $70.47 ยท ฮ 0.57
LONG PUT ยท $530 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $63.07 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $610 by Aug 21: the long straddle returns $-5,354 (-40.1%) on $13,354 risked, vs +$7,924 (14.9%) for 100 shares on $53,076. Options give 2.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $610. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $610 by Aug 21
$-5,354
-40.1% on $13,354 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$13,354
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$663.54
+25.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
14.0 / -105.67 / 173.18
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $425 (-20%) | +$884 | -$555 | -$2,046 | -$2,815 |
| $451 (-15%) | -$28 | -$1,778 | -$3,800 | -$5,469 |
| $478 (-10%) | -$558 | -$2,562 | -$5,049 | -$8,122 |
| $504 (-5%) | -$709 | -$2,897 | -$5,718 | -$10,776 |
| $520 (-2%) | -$624 | -$2,884 | -$5,827 | -$12,368 |
| $531 (0%) โ spot | -$497 | -$2,790 | -$5,779 | -$13,278 |
| $541 (+2%) | -$316 | -$2,628 | -$5,637 | -$12,216 |
| $557 (+5%) | +$55 | -$2,266 | -$5,257 | -$10,624 |
| $584 (+10%) | +$917 | -$1,364 | -$4,214 | -$7,970 |
| $610 (+15%) โ target | +$2,039 | -$149 | -$2,760 | -$5,354 |
| $637 (+20%) | +$3,442 | +$1,390 | -$914 | -$2,663 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.