Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
AMGN
$363.39
๐ŸŸข
AMGN IV: 29.2% โ€” LOW (-48.9% vs 30d avg of 57.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $345 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

68d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $365 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.85 ยท ฮ” -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $345 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.19 ยท ฮ” -0.31
P&L at Expiry Now $363 Target $345 $254 $363 $472
Stock (100 sh) Diagonal Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If AMGN hits $345 by Sep 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,291 (121.2%) on $1,066 risked, vs $-1,839 (-5.1%) for 100 shares on $36,339. Options give 23.8ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $345. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if AMGN hits $345 by Sep 18
+$1,291
+121.2% on $1,066 risked
Max Profit
+$1,273
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โˆ’$1,065
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$367.23
+1.06% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-15.16 / 1.2 / 20.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

AMGN Price Today Aug 3 Aug 26 Sep 18 (exp)
$291 (-20%) +$771 +$808 +$825 +$811
$309 (-15%) +$698 +$770 +$846 +$834
$327 (-10%) +$553 +$648 +$796 +$943
$345 (-5%) โ† target +$339 +$420 +$569 +$1,274
$356 (-2%) +$180 +$235 +$336 +$544
$363 (0%) โ† spot +$70 +$104 +$159 +$154
$371 (+2%) -$41 -$30 -$23 -$166
$382 (+5%) -$205 -$227 -$285 -$525
$400 (+10%) -$455 -$517 -$637 -$865
$418 (+15%) -$658 -$736 -$857 -$1,003
$436 (+20%) -$807 -$881 -$974 -$1,049
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.