Target Price Playground
AMGN
$402.60
🟢
AMGN IV: 29.3% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $450 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $405 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.35 · Δ 0.5
SHORT CALL · $435 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $7.7 · Δ 0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $450 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$2,035 (210.9%) on $965 risked, vs +$4,740 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $40,260. Options give 17.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $450. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $450 by Dec 18
+$2,035
+210.9% on $965 risked
Max Profit
+$2,035
If the stock ≥ $435 at expiry
Max Loss
−$965
Net debit
Break-even
$414.65
+2.99% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
20.65 / -2.83 / 5.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $322 (-20%) | -$867 | -$927 | -$962 | -$965 |
| $342 (-15%) | -$734 | -$840 | -$941 | -$965 |
| $362 (-10%) | -$513 | -$649 | -$841 | -$965 |
| $382 (-5%) | -$202 | -$327 | -$559 | -$965 |
| $395 (-2%) | +$17 | -$78 | -$274 | -$965 |
| $403 (0%) ← spot | +$171 | +$105 | -$41 | -$965 |
| $411 (+2%) | +$329 | +$295 | +$216 | -$400 |
| $423 (+5%) | +$565 | +$584 | +$617 | +$808 |
| $443 (+10%) | +$937 | +$1,033 | +$1,223 | +$2,035 |
| $450 (+12%) ← target | +$1,057 | +$1,173 | +$1,397 | +$2,035 |
| $463 (+15%) | +$1,255 | +$1,397 | +$1,645 | +$2,035 |
| $483 (+20%) | +$1,506 | +$1,657 | +$1,874 | +$2,035 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.