Target Price Playground
AMGN
$363.39
๐ข
AMGN IV: 29.2% โ LOW
(-48.9% vs 30d avg of 57.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $400 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $363.39 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $345 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.19 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $400 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$2,642 (7.1%) on $37,358 risked, vs +$3,661 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $36,339. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $400. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $400 by Sep 18
+$2,642
+7.1% on $37,358 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,858
Put floors you at $345
Break-even
$373.58
+2.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
44%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.81 / -12.61 / 53.21
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $291 (-20%) | -$2,944 | -$2,967 | -$2,945 | -$2,858 |
| $309 (-15%) | -$2,633 | -$2,758 | -$2,872 | -$2,858 |
| $327 (-10%) | -$2,072 | -$2,292 | -$2,579 | -$2,858 |
| $345 (-5%) | -$1,216 | -$1,483 | -$1,861 | -$2,836 |
| $356 (-2%) | -$561 | -$827 | -$1,192 | -$1,746 |
| $363 (0%) โ spot | -$71 | -$324 | -$657 | -$1,019 |
| $371 (+2%) | +$459 | +$224 | -$65 | -$292 |
| $382 (+5%) | +$1,316 | +$1,118 | +$903 | +$798 |
| $400 (+10%) โ target | +$2,905 | +$2,773 | +$2,665 | +$2,642 |
| $418 (+15%) | +$4,560 | +$4,482 | +$4,436 | +$4,432 |
| $436 (+20%) | +$6,307 | +$6,266 | +$6,250 | +$6,249 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.