Target Price Playground
AMGN
$363.39
๐ข
AMGN IV: 29.2% โ LOW
(-48.9% vs 30d avg of 57.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $320 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $365 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.1 ยท ฮ -0.47
SHORT PUT ยท $335 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.2 ยท ฮ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $320 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$2,010 (203.0%) on $990 risked, vs $-4,339 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $36,339. Options give 17.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $320. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $320 by Sep 18
+$2,010
+203.0% on $990 risked
Max Profit
+$2,010
If the stock โค $335 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$990
Net debit
Break-even
$355.10
-2.28% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
36%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-22.89 / -3.07 / 10.57
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $291 (-20%) | +$1,748 | +$1,859 | +$1,973 | +$2,010 |
| $309 (-15%) | +$1,474 | +$1,615 | +$1,829 | +$2,010 |
| $320 (-12%) โ target | +$1,245 | +$1,376 | +$1,613 | +$2,010 |
| $327 (-10%) | +$1,080 | +$1,193 | +$1,412 | +$2,010 |
| $345 (-5%) | +$618 | +$648 | +$707 | +$988 |
| $356 (-2%) | +$339 | +$310 | +$242 | -$102 |
| $363 (0%) โ spot | +$161 | +$97 | -$43 | -$829 |
| $371 (+2%) | -$6 | -$99 | -$292 | -$990 |
| $382 (+5%) | -$231 | -$353 | -$580 | -$990 |
| $400 (+10%) | -$527 | -$658 | -$852 | -$990 |
| $418 (+15%) | -$727 | -$835 | -$953 | -$990 |
| $436 (+20%) | -$850 | -$925 | -$982 | -$990 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.