Target Price Playground
AMGN
$363.39
๐ข
AMGN IV: 29.2% โ LOW
(-48.9% vs 30d avg of 57.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $405 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $365 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.65 ยท ฮ 0.53
SHORT CALL ยท $390 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.9 ยท ฮ 0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $405 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,325 (112.8%) on $1,175 risked, vs +$4,161 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $36,339. Options give 9.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $405. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $405 by Sep 18
+$1,325
+112.8% on $1,175 risked
Max Profit
+$1,325
If the stock โฅ $390 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,175
Net debit
Break-even
$376.75
+3.68% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
20.77 / -2.01 / 5.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $291 (-20%) | -$1,118 | -$1,156 | -$1,174 | -$1,175 |
| $309 (-15%) | -$1,020 | -$1,096 | -$1,163 | -$1,175 |
| $327 (-10%) | -$837 | -$945 | -$1,094 | -$1,175 |
| $345 (-5%) | -$561 | -$667 | -$863 | -$1,175 |
| $356 (-2%) | -$361 | -$441 | -$609 | -$1,175 |
| $363 (0%) โ spot | -$218 | -$273 | -$396 | -$1,175 |
| $371 (+2%) | -$72 | -$97 | -$158 | -$609 |
| $382 (+5%) | +$147 | +$168 | +$211 | +$481 |
| $400 (+10%) | +$486 | +$571 | +$745 | +$1,325 |
| $405 (+11%) โ target | +$574 | +$672 | +$865 | +$1,325 |
| $418 (+15%) | +$764 | +$881 | +$1,082 | +$1,325 |
| $436 (+20%) | +$971 | +$1,086 | +$1,240 | +$1,325 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.