Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $380 by Sep 18: the cash-secured put returns +$820 (2.5%) on $-820 credit (max loss $32,680), vs +$1,661 (4.6%) for 100 shares on $36,339. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $380. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $291 (-20%) | -$3,644 | -$3,576 | -$3,544 | -$3,609 |
| $309 (-15%) | -$2,253 | -$2,081 | -$1,883 | -$1,792 |
| $327 (-10%) | -$1,149 | -$903 | -$560 | +$25 |
| $345 (-5%) | -$351 | -$92 | +$264 | +$820 |
| $356 (-2%) | -$8 | +$231 | +$536 | +$820 |
| $363 (0%) โ spot | +$173 | +$390 | +$647 | +$820 |
| $371 (+2%) | +$320 | +$512 | +$719 | +$820 |
| $380 (+5%) โ target | +$466 | +$624 | +$773 | +$820 |
| $400 (+10%) | +$659 | +$752 | +$812 | +$820 |
| $418 (+15%) | +$747 | +$797 | +$819 | +$820 |
| $436 (+20%) | +$789 | +$813 | +$820 | +$820 |