Target Price Playground
AMGN
$363.39
๐ข
AMGN IV: 29.2% โ LOW
(-48.9% vs 30d avg of 57.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $405 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $365 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.65 ยท ฮ 0.53
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $405 by Sep 18: the long call returns +$1,935 (93.7%) on $2,065 risked, vs +$4,161 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $36,339. Options give 8.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $405. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $405 by Sep 18
+$1,935
+93.7% on $2,065 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,065
Premium paid
Break-even
$385.65
+6.13% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
52.64 / -13.66 / 62.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $291 (-20%) | -$1,988 | -$2,042 | -$2,064 | -$2,065 |
| $309 (-15%) | -$1,836 | -$1,965 | -$2,052 | -$2,065 |
| $327 (-10%) | -$1,516 | -$1,748 | -$1,975 | -$2,065 |
| $345 (-5%) | -$959 | -$1,287 | -$1,687 | -$2,065 |
| $356 (-2%) | -$492 | -$858 | -$1,333 | -$2,065 |
| $363 (0%) โ spot | -$123 | -$503 | -$1,003 | -$2,065 |
| $371 (+2%) | +$290 | -$94 | -$597 | -$1,499 |
| $382 (+5%) | +$988 | +$616 | +$146 | -$409 |
| $400 (+10%) | +$2,337 | +$2,015 | +$1,657 | +$1,408 |
| $405 (+11%) โ target | +$2,765 | +$2,461 | +$2,139 | +$1,935 |
| $418 (+15%) | +$3,866 | +$3,609 | +$3,366 | +$3,225 |
| $436 (+20%) | +$5,518 | +$5,321 | +$5,153 | +$5,042 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.