Target Price Playground
AMGN
$363.39
๐ข
AMGN IV: 29.2% โ LOW
(-48.9% vs 30d avg of 57.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $320 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $365 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.1 ยท ฮ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $320 by Sep 18: the long put returns +$2,690 (148.6%) on $1,810 risked, vs $-4,339 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $36,339. Options give 12.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $320. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $320 by Sep 18
+$2,690
+148.6% on $1,810 risked
Max Profit
+$34,690
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,810
Premium paid
Break-even
$346.90
-4.54% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
36%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-46.89 / -14.0 / 62.8
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $291 (-20%) | +$5,392 | +$5,436 | +$5,517 | +$5,619 |
| $309 (-15%) | +$3,726 | +$3,696 | +$3,712 | +$3,802 |
| $320 (-12%) โ target | +$2,785 | +$2,693 | +$2,632 | +$2,690 |
| $327 (-10%) | +$2,229 | +$2,096 | +$1,972 | +$1,985 |
| $345 (-5%) | +$969 | +$740 | +$443 | +$168 |
| $356 (-2%) | +$346 | +$79 | -$293 | -$922 |
| $363 (0%) โ spot | -$12 | -$293 | -$691 | -$1,649 |
| $371 (+2%) | -$326 | -$611 | -$1,011 | -$1,810 |
| $382 (+5%) | -$718 | -$992 | -$1,359 | -$1,810 |
| $400 (+10%) | -$1,186 | -$1,410 | -$1,664 | -$1,810 |
| $418 (+15%) | -$1,474 | -$1,632 | -$1,772 | -$1,810 |
| $436 (+20%) | -$1,638 | -$1,738 | -$1,802 | -$1,810 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.