Target Price Playground
AMGN
$363.39
๐ข
AMGN IV: 29.2% โ LOW
(-49.0% vs 30d avg of 57.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $420 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $365 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.65 ยท ฮ 0.53
LONG PUT ยท $365 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.1 ยท ฮ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $420 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns +$1,625 (41.9%) on $3,875 risked, vs +$5,661 (15.6%) for 100 shares on $36,339. Options give 2.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $420. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $420 by Sep 18
+$1,625
+41.9% on $3,875 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,875
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$326.25
-10.22% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
5.75 / -27.66 / 125.55
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $291 (-20%) | +$3,404 | +$3,394 | +$3,453 | +$3,554 |
| $309 (-15%) | +$1,891 | +$1,731 | +$1,659 | +$1,737 |
| $327 (-10%) | +$713 | +$348 | -$3 | -$80 |
| $345 (-5%) | +$10 | -$547 | -$1,244 | -$1,897 |
| $356 (-2%) | -$146 | -$779 | -$1,626 | -$2,987 |
| $363 (0%) โ spot | -$136 | -$796 | -$1,694 | -$3,714 |
| $371 (+2%) | -$36 | -$704 | -$1,608 | -$3,309 |
| $382 (+5%) | +$270 | -$376 | -$1,213 | -$2,219 |
| $400 (+10%) | +$1,151 | +$605 | -$7 | -$402 |
| $420 (+16%) โ target | +$2,554 | +$2,154 | +$1,792 | +$1,625 |
| $436 (+20%) | +$3,880 | +$3,583 | +$3,351 | +$3,232 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.