Target Price Playground
ARM
$250.72
๐ข
ARM IV: 70.7% โ LOW
(-31.2% vs 30d avg of 102.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $250 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.75 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $270 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.21 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARM hits $280 by Oct 16: the bull call spread returns +$1,346 (205.8%) on $654 risked, vs +$2,928 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $25,072. Options give 17.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARM is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARM hits $280 by Oct 16
+$1,346
+205.8% on $654 risked
Max Profit
+$1,346
If the stock โฅ $270 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$654
Net debit
Break-even
$256.54
+2.32% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.8 / 0.14 / -1.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARM Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $201 (-20%) | -$354 | -$428 | -$552 | -$654 |
| $213 (-15%) | -$244 | -$312 | -$449 | -$654 |
| $226 (-10%) | -$120 | -$174 | -$298 | -$654 |
| $238 (-5%) | +$12 | -$19 | -$103 | -$654 |
| $246 (-2%) | +$93 | +$79 | +$28 | -$654 |
| $251 (0%) โ spot | +$148 | +$145 | +$120 | -$582 |
| $256 (+2%) | +$202 | +$211 | +$212 | -$81 |
| $263 (+5%) | +$283 | +$309 | +$351 | +$672 |
| $276 (+10%) | +$413 | +$467 | +$571 | +$1,346 |
| $280 (+12%) โ target | +$455 | +$517 | +$640 | +$1,346 |
| $288 (+15%) | +$536 | +$613 | +$766 | +$1,346 |
| $301 (+20%) | +$649 | +$744 | +$927 | +$1,346 |
Uses ARM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.