Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARM hits $265 by Oct 16: the cash-secured put returns +$1,705 (8.0%) on $-1,705 credit (max loss $21,295), vs +$1,428 (5.7%) for 100 shares on $25,072. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARM is at $265. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARM Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $201 (-20%) | -$2,340 | -$2,008 | -$1,592 | -$1,237 |
| $213 (-15%) | -$1,609 | -$1,224 | -$704 | +$16 |
| $226 (-10%) | -$980 | -$563 | +$18 | +$1,270 |
| $238 (-5%) | -$450 | -$22 | +$572 | +$1,705 |
| $246 (-2%) | -$175 | +$250 | +$830 | +$1,705 |
| $251 (0%) โ spot | -$9 | +$411 | +$974 | +$1,705 |
| $256 (+2%) | +$144 | +$557 | +$1,099 | +$1,705 |
| $265 (+6%) โ target | +$397 | +$790 | +$1,282 | +$1,705 |
| $276 (+10%) | +$645 | +$1,009 | +$1,433 | +$1,705 |
| $288 (+15%) | +$880 | +$1,204 | +$1,547 | +$1,705 |
| $301 (+20%) | +$1,066 | +$1,348 | +$1,616 | +$1,705 |