Target Price Playground
ARM
$250.72
๐ข
ARM IV: 70.7% โ LOW
(-31.2% vs 30d avg of 102.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $250 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.75 ยท ฮ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARM hits $280 by Oct 16: the long call returns +$325 (12.1%) on $2,675 risked, vs +$2,928 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $25,072. Options give 1.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARM is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARM hits $280 by Oct 16
+$325
+12.1% on $2,675 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,675
Premium paid
Break-even
$276.75
+10.38% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.34 / -25.16 / 38.43
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARM Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $201 (-20%) | -$1,864 | -$2,183 | -$2,518 | -$2,675 |
| $213 (-15%) | -$1,481 | -$1,871 | -$2,334 | -$2,675 |
| $226 (-10%) | -$1,001 | -$1,451 | -$2,030 | -$2,675 |
| $238 (-5%) | -$425 | -$917 | -$1,579 | -$2,675 |
| $246 (-2%) | -$33 | -$542 | -$1,234 | -$2,675 |
| $251 (0%) โ spot | +$245 | -$271 | -$973 | -$2,603 |
| $256 (+2%) | +$537 | +$18 | -$688 | -$2,102 |
| $263 (+5%) | +$1,002 | +$482 | -$216 | -$1,349 |
| $276 (+10%) | +$1,838 | +$1,330 | +$673 | -$96 |
| $280 (+12%) โ target | +$2,135 | +$1,634 | +$997 | +$325 |
| $288 (+15%) | +$2,744 | +$2,263 | +$1,672 | +$1,158 |
| $301 (+20%) | +$3,712 | +$3,265 | +$2,753 | +$2,411 |
Uses ARM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.