Target Price Playground
ARM
$250.72
๐ข
ARM IV: 70.7% โ LOW
(-31.2% vs 30d avg of 102.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $220 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $250 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.0 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARM hits $220 by Oct 16: the long put returns +$300 (11.1%) on $2,700 risked, vs $-3,072 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $25,072. Options give 0.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARM is at $220. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARM hits $220 by Oct 16
+$300
+11.1% on $2,700 risked
Max Profit
+$22,300
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,700
Premium paid
Break-even
$223.00
-11.06% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-46.0 / -22.61 / 38.45
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARM Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $201 (-20%) | +$2,881 | +$2,617 | +$2,341 | +$2,242 |
| $213 (-15%) | +$2,011 | +$1,676 | +$1,271 | +$989 |
| $220 (-12%) โ target | +$1,574 | +$1,204 | +$733 | +$300 |
| $226 (-10%) | +$1,237 | +$842 | +$322 | -$265 |
| $238 (-5%) | +$560 | +$123 | -$481 | -$1,518 |
| $246 (-2%) | +$199 | -$255 | -$888 | -$2,271 |
| $251 (0%) โ spot | -$24 | -$485 | -$1,128 | -$2,700 |
| $256 (+2%) | -$233 | -$697 | -$1,344 | -$2,700 |
| $263 (+5%) | -$521 | -$986 | -$1,625 | -$2,700 |
| $276 (+10%) | -$939 | -$1,391 | -$1,989 | -$2,700 |
| $288 (+15%) | -$1,286 | -$1,712 | -$2,245 | -$2,700 |
| $301 (+20%) | -$1,571 | -$1,963 | -$2,417 | -$2,700 |
Uses ARM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.