Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
ASML
$1,750.31
๐ŸŸข
ASML IV: 48.6% โ€” LOW (-39.9% vs 30d avg of 80.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $1540 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

56d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $1750 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $127.44 ยท ฮ” -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $1610 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $66.4 ยท ฮ” -0.29
P&L at Expiry Now $1750 Target $1540 $1225 $1750 $2275
Stock (100 sh) Bear Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If ASML hits $1540 by Oct 16: the bear put spread returns +$7,896 (129.4%) on $6,104 risked, vs $-21,031 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $175,031. Options give 10.8ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ASML is at $1540. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if ASML hits $1540 by Oct 16
+$7,896
+129.4% on $6,104 risked
Max Profit
+$7,896
If the stock โ‰ค $1610 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$6,104
Net debit
Break-even
$1688.96
-3.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-16.17 / -12.48 / 38.18
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

ASML Price Today Sep 8 Sep 27 Oct 16 (exp)
$1400 (-20%) +$5,589 +$6,185 +$7,132 +$7,896
$1488 (-15%) +$4,373 +$4,903 +$5,946 +$7,896
$1540 (-12%) โ† target +$3,546 +$3,965 +$4,869 +$7,896
$1575 (-10%) +$2,960 +$3,278 +$4,003 +$7,896
$1663 (-5%) +$1,464 +$1,482 +$1,556 +$2,617
$1715 (-2%) +$575 +$405 +$48 -$2,634
$1750 (0%) โ† spot +$0 -$289 -$906 -$6,104
$1785 (+2%) -$555 -$951 -$1,790 -$6,104
$1838 (+5%) -$1,340 -$1,870 -$2,948 -$6,104
$1925 (+10%) -$2,499 -$3,168 -$4,381 -$6,104
$2013 (+15%) -$3,451 -$4,157 -$5,253 -$6,104
$2100 (+20%) -$4,202 -$4,865 -$5,720 -$6,104
Uses ASML's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.