Target Price Playground
AVGO
$411.35
๐ข
AVGO IV: 51.4% โ LOW
(-35.6% vs 30d avg of 79.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $460 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $410 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $32.6 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $445 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.63 ยท ฮ 0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AVGO hits $460 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$2,603 (290.4%) on $897 risked, vs +$4,865 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $41,135. Options give 24.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AVGO is at $460. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AVGO hits $460 by Aug 21
+$2,603
+290.4% on $897 risked
Max Profit
+$2,603
If the stock โฅ $445 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$897
Net debit
Break-even
$418.97
+1.85% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.37 / 1.38 / 0.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AVGO Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $329 (-20%) | -$543 | -$672 | -$829 | -$897 |
| $350 (-15%) | -$340 | -$482 | -$704 | -$897 |
| $370 (-10%) | -$89 | -$218 | -$462 | -$897 |
| $391 (-5%) | +$196 | +$107 | -$90 | -$897 |
| $403 (-2%) | +$378 | +$322 | +$188 | -$897 |
| $411 (0%) โ spot | +$501 | +$471 | +$387 | -$762 |
| $420 (+2%) | +$624 | +$621 | +$593 | +$61 |
| $432 (+5%) | +$807 | +$845 | +$904 | +$1,295 |
| $452 (+10%) | +$1,102 | +$1,201 | +$1,391 | +$2,603 |
| $460 (+12%) โ target | +$1,204 | +$1,323 | +$1,551 | +$2,603 |
| $473 (+15%) | +$1,372 | +$1,521 | +$1,797 | +$2,603 |
| $494 (+20%) | +$1,611 | +$1,791 | +$2,100 | +$2,603 |
Uses AVGO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.