Target Price Playground
AVGO
$409.15
๐ข
AVGO IV: 51.7% โ LOW
(-35.2% vs 30d avg of 79.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $460 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $410 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $32.6 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $440 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.46 ยท ฮ 0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AVGO hits $460 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$1,886 (169.3%) on $1,114 risked, vs +$5,085 (12.4%) for 100 shares on $40,915. Options give 13.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AVGO is at $460. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AVGO hits $460 by Aug 21
+$1,886
+169.3% on $1,114 risked
Max Profit
+$1,886
If the stock โฅ $440 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,114
Net debit
Break-even
$421.14
+2.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
13.79 / -0.79 / 5.77
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AVGO Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $327 (-20%) | -$811 | -$922 | -$1,057 | -$1,114 |
| $348 (-15%) | -$636 | -$759 | -$950 | -$1,114 |
| $368 (-10%) | -$421 | -$532 | -$743 | -$1,114 |
| $389 (-5%) | -$176 | -$252 | -$422 | -$1,114 |
| $401 (-2%) | -$20 | -$67 | -$183 | -$1,114 |
| $409 (0%) โ spot | +$86 | +$60 | -$11 | -$1,114 |
| $417 (+2%) | +$192 | +$189 | +$166 | -$381 |
| $430 (+5%) | +$349 | +$382 | +$434 | +$847 |
| $450 (+10%) | +$602 | +$688 | +$853 | +$1,886 |
| $460 (+12%) โ target | +$717 | +$826 | +$1,032 | +$1,886 |
| $471 (+15%) | +$834 | +$962 | +$1,201 | +$1,886 |
| $491 (+20%) | +$1,039 | +$1,194 | +$1,460 | +$1,886 |
Uses AVGO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.