Target Price Playground
AVGO
$409.15
๐ข
AVGO IV: 51.4% โ LOW
(-35.6% vs 30d avg of 79.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $440 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $409.15 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $440 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.46 ยท ฮ 0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AVGO hits $440 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$5,231 (13.5%) on $38,769 risked, vs +$3,085 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $40,915. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AVGO is at $440. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AVGO hits $440 by Aug 21
+$5,231
+13.5% on $38,769 risked
Max Profit
+$5,231
If the stock โฅ $440 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$38,769
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$387.69
-5.25% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
60.06 / 26.75 / -61.46
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AVGO Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $327 (-20%) | -$6,386 | -$6,180 | -$6,054 | -$6,037 |
| $348 (-15%) | -$4,628 | -$4,309 | -$4,056 | -$3,991 |
| $368 (-10%) | -$3,012 | -$2,568 | -$2,140 | -$1,945 |
| $389 (-5%) | -$1,562 | -$1,001 | -$375 | +$100 |
| $401 (-2%) | -$778 | -$155 | +$581 | +$1,328 |
| $409 (0%) โ spot | -$292 | +$365 | +$1,165 | +$2,146 |
| $417 (+2%) | +$164 | +$850 | +$1,704 | +$2,964 |
| $430 (+5%) | +$794 | +$1,511 | +$2,423 | +$4,192 |
| $440 (+8%) โ target | +$1,276 | +$2,009 | +$2,946 | +$5,231 |
| $450 (+10%) | +$1,700 | +$2,439 | +$3,380 | +$5,231 |
| $471 (+15%) | +$2,442 | +$3,166 | +$4,057 | +$5,231 |
| $491 (+20%) | +$3,036 | +$3,717 | +$4,504 | +$5,231 |
Uses AVGO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.