Target Price Playground
AVGO
$411.35
๐ข
AVGO IV: 51.6% โ LOW
(-35.7% vs 30d avg of 80.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $410 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.73 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $390 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.3 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AVGO hits $390 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,576 (90.4%) on $1,743 risked, vs $-2,135 (-5.2%) for 100 shares on $41,135. Options give 17.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AVGO is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AVGO hits $390 by Aug 21
+$1,576
+90.4% on $1,743 risked
Max Profit
+$1,566
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,667
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$422.21
+2.64% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-8.63 / 1.3 / 15.11
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AVGO Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $329 (-20%) | +$217 | +$299 | +$378 | +$268 |
| $350 (-15%) | +$176 | +$291 | +$456 | +$500 |
| $370 (-10%) | +$96 | +$226 | +$450 | +$933 |
| $390 (-5%) โ target | -$17 | +$107 | +$335 | +$1,593 |
| $403 (-2%) | -$108 | +$0 | +$200 | +$867 |
| $411 (0%) โ spot | -$170 | -$75 | +$95 | +$471 |
| $420 (+2%) | -$236 | -$157 | -$21 | +$121 |
| $432 (+5%) | -$339 | -$286 | -$210 | -$324 |
| $452 (+10%) | -$516 | -$511 | -$535 | -$876 |
| $473 (+15%) | -$692 | -$731 | -$837 | -$1,236 |
| $494 (+20%) | -$860 | -$934 | -$1,091 | -$1,459 |
Uses AVGO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.