Target Price Playground
AVGO
$409.15
๐ข
AVGO IV: 51.4% โ LOW
(-35.6% vs 30d avg of 79.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $450 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $409.15 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $390 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.25 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AVGO hits $450 by Aug 21: the protective put returns +$1,760 (4.1%) on $43,240 risked, vs +$4,085 (10.0%) for 100 shares on $40,915. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AVGO is at $450. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AVGO hits $450 by Aug 21
+$1,760
+4.1% on $43,240 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$4,240
Put floors you at $390
Break-even
$432.40
+5.68% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.29 / -22.85 / 65.23
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AVGO Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $327 (-20%) | -$3,577 | -$3,876 | -$4,164 | -$4,240 |
| $348 (-15%) | -$2,961 | -$3,376 | -$3,861 | -$4,240 |
| $368 (-10%) | -$2,141 | -$2,643 | -$3,289 | -$4,240 |
| $389 (-5%) | -$1,114 | -$1,662 | -$2,390 | -$4,240 |
| $401 (-2%) | -$402 | -$956 | -$1,688 | -$3,143 |
| $409 (0%) โ spot | +$110 | -$441 | -$1,157 | -$2,325 |
| $417 (+2%) | +$650 | +$108 | -$580 | -$1,507 |
| $430 (+5%) | +$1,509 | +$992 | +$363 | -$279 |
| $450 (+10%) โ target | +$3,053 | +$2,595 | +$2,091 | +$1,760 |
| $471 (+15%) | +$4,732 | +$4,345 | +$3,971 | +$3,812 |
| $491 (+20%) | +$6,504 | +$6,190 | +$5,930 | +$5,858 |
Uses AVGO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.