Target Price Playground
COST
$935.03
๐ข
COST IV: 24.5% โ LOW
(-45.8% vs 30d avg of 45.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1050 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
54d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $940 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $32.5 ยท ฮ 0.51
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If COST hits $1050 by Sep 18: the long call returns +$7,750 (238.5%) on $3,250 risked, vs +$11,497 (12.3%) for 100 shares on $93,503. Options give 19.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (54 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if COST is at $1050. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if COST hits $1050 by Sep 18
+$7,750
+238.5% on $3,250 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$3,250
Premium paid
Break-even
$972.50
+4.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 54d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
51.28 / -33.02 / 144.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| COST Price | Today | Aug 13 | Aug 31 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $748 (-20%) | -$3,155 | -$3,229 | -$3,250 | -$3,250 |
| $795 (-15%) | -$2,898 | -$3,120 | -$3,239 | -$3,250 |
| $842 (-10%) | -$2,253 | -$2,724 | -$3,127 | -$3,250 |
| $888 (-5%) | -$984 | -$1,719 | -$2,557 | -$3,250 |
| $916 (-2%) | +$149 | -$693 | -$1,740 | -$3,250 |
| $935 (0%) โ spot | +$1,070 | +$190 | -$928 | -$3,250 |
| $954 (+2%) | +$2,121 | +$1,231 | +$109 | -$1,877 |
| $982 (+5%) | +$3,927 | +$3,074 | +$2,051 | +$928 |
| $1029 (+10%) | +$7,465 | +$6,763 | +$6,050 | +$5,603 |
| $1050 (+12%) โ target | +$9,268 | +$8,650 | +$8,075 | +$7,750 |
| $1075 (+15%) | +$11,498 | +$10,975 | +$10,533 | +$10,278 |
| $1122 (+20%) | +$15,844 | +$15,464 | +$15,169 | +$14,954 |
Uses COST's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.