Target Price Playground
GOOG
$355.03
๐ข
GOOG IV: 36.4% โ LOW
(-31.4% vs 30d avg of 53.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $310 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.45 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $325 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.0 ยท ฮ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOG hits $310 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,855 (162.0%) on $1,145 risked, vs $-4,503 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $35,503. Options give 12.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOG is at $310. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOG hits $310 by Sep 18
+$1,855
+162.0% on $1,145 risked
Max Profit
+$1,855
If the stock โค $325 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,145
Net debit
Break-even
$343.55
-3.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-20.86 / -2.25 / 11.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOG Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $284 (-20%) | +$1,451 | +$1,582 | +$1,757 | +$1,855 |
| $302 (-15%) | +$1,168 | +$1,299 | +$1,532 | +$1,855 |
| $310 (-13%) โ target | +$1,011 | +$1,127 | +$1,352 | +$1,855 |
| $320 (-10%) | +$815 | +$901 | +$1,082 | +$1,855 |
| $337 (-5%) | +$431 | +$441 | +$464 | +$627 |
| $348 (-2%) | +$203 | +$165 | +$81 | -$438 |
| $355 (0%) โ spot | +$57 | -$10 | -$156 | -$1,145 |
| $362 (+2%) | -$82 | -$174 | -$368 | -$1,145 |
| $373 (+5%) | -$274 | -$395 | -$630 | -$1,145 |
| $391 (+10%) | -$544 | -$685 | -$916 | -$1,145 |
| $408 (+15%) | -$747 | -$882 | -$1,058 | -$1,145 |
| $426 (+20%) | -$893 | -$1,003 | -$1,116 | -$1,145 |
Uses GOOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.