Target Price Playground
GOOG
$355.03
๐ข
GOOG IV: 36.4% โ LOW
(-31.4% vs 30d avg of 53.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $400 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $355 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.0 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $385 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.6 ยท ฮ 0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOG hits $400 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,760 (141.9%) on $1,240 risked, vs +$4,497 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $35,503. Options give 11.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOG is at $400. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOG hits $400 by Sep 18
+$1,760
+141.9% on $1,240 risked
Max Profit
+$1,760
If the stock โฅ $385 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,240
Net debit
Break-even
$367.40
+3.48% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
20.55 / -2.36 / 4.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOG Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $284 (-20%) | -$1,098 | -$1,173 | -$1,232 | -$1,240 |
| $302 (-15%) | -$947 | -$1,060 | -$1,192 | -$1,240 |
| $320 (-10%) | -$720 | -$849 | -$1,057 | -$1,240 |
| $337 (-5%) | -$424 | -$532 | -$751 | -$1,240 |
| $348 (-2%) | -$222 | -$300 | -$474 | -$1,240 |
| $355 (0%) โ spot | -$82 | -$134 | -$258 | -$1,237 |
| $362 (+2%) | +$60 | +$37 | -$25 | -$527 |
| $373 (+5%) | +$273 | +$295 | +$334 | +$538 |
| $391 (+10%) | +$610 | +$699 | +$883 | +$1,760 |
| $400 (+13%) โ target | +$774 | +$890 | +$1,120 | +$1,760 |
| $408 (+15%) | +$905 | +$1,039 | +$1,289 | +$1,760 |
| $426 (+20%) | +$1,147 | +$1,298 | +$1,537 | +$1,760 |
Uses GOOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.