Target Price Playground
GOOG
$355.03
๐ข
GOOG IV: 36.4% โ LOW
(-31.4% vs 30d avg of 53.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $355.03 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $335 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.1 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOG hits $390 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$2,287 (6.2%) on $36,713 risked, vs +$3,497 (9.8%) for 100 shares on $35,503. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOG is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOG hits $390 by Sep 18
+$2,287
+6.2% on $36,713 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,213
Put floors you at $335
Break-even
$367.13
+3.41% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.58 / -13.5 / 52.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOG Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $284 (-20%) | -$3,073 | -$3,184 | -$3,262 | -$3,213 |
| $302 (-15%) | -$2,647 | -$2,861 | -$3,105 | -$3,213 |
| $320 (-10%) | -$1,996 | -$2,291 | -$2,690 | -$3,213 |
| $337 (-5%) | -$1,104 | -$1,435 | -$1,899 | -$2,985 |
| $348 (-2%) | -$457 | -$785 | -$1,234 | -$1,920 |
| $355 (0%) โ spot | +$17 | -$300 | -$720 | -$1,210 |
| $362 (+2%) | +$523 | +$221 | -$159 | -$500 |
| $373 (+5%) | +$1,334 | +$1,064 | +$755 | +$565 |
| $390 (+10%) โ target | +$2,758 | +$2,550 | +$2,353 | +$2,287 |
| $408 (+15%) | +$4,385 | +$4,240 | +$4,133 | +$4,115 |
| $426 (+20%) | +$6,043 | +$5,949 | +$5,896 | +$5,891 |
Uses GOOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.