Target Price Playground
GOOG
$355.03
๐ข
GOOG IV: 36.4% โ LOW
(-31.4% vs 30d avg of 53.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $410 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $355 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.0 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.45 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOG hits $410 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns +$1,155 (26.6%) on $4,345 risked, vs +$5,497 (15.5%) for 100 shares on $35,503. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOG is at $410. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOG hits $410 by Sep 18
+$1,155
+26.6% on $4,345 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$4,345
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$398.45
+12.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.81 / -31.94 / 122.16
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOG Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $284 (-20%) | +$2,870 | +$2,720 | +$2,670 | +$2,753 |
| $302 (-15%) | +$1,601 | +$1,259 | +$981 | +$977 |
| $320 (-10%) | +$682 | +$135 | -$476 | -$798 |
| $337 (-5%) | +$189 | -$523 | -$1,450 | -$2,573 |
| $348 (-2%) | +$112 | -$661 | -$1,706 | -$3,638 |
| $355 (0%) โ spot | +$151 | -$642 | -$1,723 | -$4,342 |
| $362 (+2%) | +$261 | -$538 | -$1,619 | -$3,632 |
| $373 (+5%) | +$551 | -$230 | -$1,252 | -$2,567 |
| $391 (+10%) | +$1,333 | +$638 | -$180 | -$792 |
| $410 (+15%) โ target | +$2,544 | +$1,984 | +$1,425 | +$1,155 |
| $426 (+20%) | +$3,750 | +$3,304 | +$2,921 | +$2,759 |
Uses GOOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.