Target Price Playground
GOOGL
$357.18
๐ข
GOOGL IV: 36.5% โ LOW
(-33.4% vs 30d avg of 54.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $315 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.9 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $330 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.18 ยท ฮ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOGL hits $315 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,528 (157.2%) on $972 risked, vs $-4,218 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $35,718. Options give 13.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOGL is at $315. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOGL hits $315 by Sep 18
+$1,528
+157.2% on $972 risked
Max Profit
+$1,528
If the stock โค $330 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$972
Net debit
Break-even
$345.28
-3.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-17.59 / -2.13 / 10.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOGL Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $286 (-20%) | +$1,194 | +$1,303 | +$1,450 | +$1,528 |
| $304 (-15%) | +$960 | +$1,070 | +$1,267 | +$1,528 |
| $315 (-12%) โ target | +$779 | +$870 | +$1,053 | +$1,528 |
| $321 (-10%) | +$669 | +$742 | +$898 | +$1,528 |
| $339 (-5%) | +$351 | +$361 | +$385 | +$596 |
| $350 (-2%) | +$161 | +$131 | +$64 | -$476 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | +$40 | -$15 | -$135 | -$972 |
| $364 (+2%) | -$75 | -$151 | -$313 | -$972 |
| $375 (+5%) | -$235 | -$336 | -$534 | -$972 |
| $393 (+10%) | -$461 | -$580 | -$777 | -$972 |
| $411 (+15%) | -$632 | -$746 | -$897 | -$972 |
| $429 (+20%) | -$755 | -$850 | -$947 | -$972 |
Uses GOOGL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.