Target Price Playground
GOOGL
$357.18
๐ข
GOOGL IV: 36.5% โ LOW
(-33.4% vs 30d avg of 54.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $400 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $355 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $24.6 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $385 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.33 ยท ฮ 0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOGL hits $400 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,773 (144.5%) on $1,227 risked, vs +$4,282 (12.0%) for 100 shares on $35,718. Options give 12.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOGL is at $400. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOGL hits $400 by Sep 18
+$1,773
+144.5% on $1,227 risked
Max Profit
+$1,773
If the stock โฅ $385 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,227
Net debit
Break-even
$367.27
+2.82% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
20.27 / -1.88 / 4.25
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOGL Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $286 (-20%) | -$1,069 | -$1,150 | -$1,216 | -$1,227 |
| $304 (-15%) | -$909 | -$1,025 | -$1,169 | -$1,227 |
| $321 (-10%) | -$673 | -$801 | -$1,016 | -$1,227 |
| $339 (-5%) | -$370 | -$472 | -$685 | -$1,227 |
| $350 (-2%) | -$166 | -$236 | -$395 | -$1,227 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | -$25 | -$68 | -$173 | -$1,009 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$117 | +$103 | +$63 | -$295 |
| $375 (+5%) | +$328 | +$359 | +$420 | +$777 |
| $393 (+10%) | +$660 | +$757 | +$953 | +$1,773 |
| $400 (+12%) โ target | +$781 | +$897 | +$1,126 | +$1,773 |
| $411 (+15%) | +$948 | +$1,086 | +$1,339 | +$1,773 |
| $429 (+20%) | +$1,183 | +$1,334 | +$1,569 | +$1,773 |
Uses GOOGL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.