Target Price Playground
GOOGL
$357.18
๐ข
GOOGL IV: 36.5% โ LOW
(-33.4% vs 30d avg of 54.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $395 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $357.18 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $340 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.51 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOGL hits $395 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$2,431 (6.6%) on $37,069 risked, vs +$3,782 (10.6%) for 100 shares on $35,718. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOGL is at $395. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOGL hits $395 by Sep 18
+$2,431
+6.6% on $37,069 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,069
Put floors you at $340
Break-even
$370.69
+3.78% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
51%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.37 / -13.59 / 59.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOGL Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $286 (-20%) | -$2,960 | -$3,063 | -$3,127 | -$3,069 |
| $304 (-15%) | -$2,557 | -$2,764 | -$2,990 | -$3,069 |
| $321 (-10%) | -$1,935 | -$2,228 | -$2,618 | -$3,069 |
| $339 (-5%) | -$1,075 | -$1,412 | -$1,886 | -$3,069 |
| $350 (-2%) | -$447 | -$786 | -$1,256 | -$2,065 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | +$15 | -$317 | -$763 | -$1,351 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$508 | +$191 | -$220 | -$637 |
| $375 (+5%) | +$1,305 | +$1,016 | +$673 | +$435 |
| $395 (+11%) โ target | +$2,934 | +$2,715 | +$2,504 | +$2,431 |
| $411 (+15%) | +$4,324 | +$4,161 | +$4,033 | +$4,007 |
| $429 (+20%) | +$5,975 | +$5,866 | +$5,800 | +$5,793 |
Uses GOOGL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.