Target Price Playground
HON
$229.01
๐ข
HON IV: 30.7% โ LOW
(-53.8% vs 30d avg of 66.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $200 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $230 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.4 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $210 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.9 ยท ฮ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HON hits $200 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$1,150 (135.3%) on $850 risked, vs $-2,901 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $22,901. Options give 10.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HON is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if HON hits $200 by Aug 21
+$1,150
+135.3% on $850 risked
Max Profit
+$1,150
If the stock โค $210 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$850
Net debit
Break-even
$221.50
-3.28% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-24.27 / -1.83 / 6.62
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HON Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $183 (-20%) | +$965 | +$1,042 | +$1,120 | +$1,150 |
| $195 (-15%) | +$778 | +$873 | +$1,013 | +$1,150 |
| $200 (-13%) โ target | +$664 | +$753 | +$904 | +$1,150 |
| $206 (-10%) | +$515 | +$588 | +$722 | +$1,150 |
| $218 (-5%) | +$210 | +$226 | +$255 | +$394 |
| $224 (-2%) | +$27 | +$3 | -$47 | -$293 |
| $229 (0%) โ spot | -$90 | -$136 | -$231 | -$751 |
| $234 (+2%) | -$199 | -$264 | -$391 | -$850 |
| $240 (+5%) | -$346 | -$430 | -$577 | -$850 |
| $252 (+10%) | -$540 | -$630 | -$755 | -$850 |
| $263 (+15%) | -$672 | -$746 | -$824 | -$850 |
| $275 (+20%) | -$754 | -$806 | -$844 | -$850 |
Uses HON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.