Target Price Playground
HON
$218.33
🟢
HON IV: 27.7% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 54.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $245 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $220 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.85 · Δ 0.5
SHORT CALL · $235 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.32 · Δ 0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If HON hits $245 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,047 (231.1%) on $453 risked, vs +$2,667 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $21,833. Options give 18.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HON is at $245. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if HON hits $245 by Dec 18
+$1,047
+231.1% on $453 risked
Max Profit
+$1,047
If the stock ≥ $235 at expiry
Max Loss
−$453
Net debit
Break-even
$224.53
+2.84% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
20.67 / 0.02 / 4.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| HON Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 (-20%) | -$437 | -$449 | -$453 | -$453 |
| $186 (-15%) | -$397 | -$430 | -$451 | -$453 |
| $197 (-10%) | -$303 | -$363 | -$430 | -$453 |
| $207 (-5%) | -$141 | -$209 | -$322 | -$453 |
| $214 (-2%) | -$12 | -$69 | -$178 | -$453 |
| $218 (0%) ← spot | +$82 | +$41 | -$44 | -$453 |
| $223 (+2%) | +$181 | +$160 | +$112 | -$183 |
| $229 (+5%) | +$331 | +$342 | +$363 | +$472 |
| $240 (+10%) | +$562 | +$618 | +$725 | +$1,047 |
| $245 (+12%) ← target | +$650 | +$718 | +$837 | +$1,047 |
| $251 (+15%) | +$746 | +$820 | +$934 | +$1,047 |
| $262 (+20%) | +$875 | +$940 | +$1,016 | +$1,047 |
Uses HON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.