Target Price Playground
HON
$229.01
๐ข
HON IV: 30.7% โ LOW
(-53.8% vs 30d avg of 66.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $245 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $229.01 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $245 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.55 ยท ฮ 0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HON hits $245 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$2,254 (10.1%) on $22,246 risked, vs +$1,599 (7.0%) for 100 shares on $22,901. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HON is at $245. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if HON hits $245 by Aug 21
+$2,254
+10.1% on $22,246 risked
Max Profit
+$2,254
If the stock โฅ $245 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$22,246
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$222.46
-2.86% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.14 / 9.58 / -35.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HON Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $183 (-20%) | -$3,940 | -$3,928 | -$3,925 | -$3,925 |
| $195 (-15%) | -$2,833 | -$2,795 | -$2,781 | -$2,780 |
| $206 (-10%) | -$1,781 | -$1,697 | -$1,643 | -$1,635 |
| $218 (-5%) | -$824 | -$675 | -$541 | -$490 |
| $224 (-2%) | -$312 | -$123 | +$75 | +$197 |
| $229 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$212 | +$453 | +$655 |
| $234 (+2%) | +$285 | +$518 | +$796 | +$1,113 |
| $240 (+5%) | +$663 | +$917 | +$1,235 | +$1,800 |
| $245 (+7%) โ target | +$880 | +$1,141 | +$1,470 | +$2,254 |
| $252 (+10%) | +$1,162 | +$1,423 | +$1,747 | +$2,254 |
| $263 (+15%) | +$1,513 | +$1,750 | +$2,018 | +$2,254 |
| $275 (+20%) | +$1,744 | +$1,940 | +$2,133 | +$2,254 |
Uses HON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.