Target Price Playground
HON
$229.01
๐ข
HON IV: 30.7% โ LOW
(-53.8% vs 30d avg of 66.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $250 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $229.01 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $220 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.1 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HON hits $250 by Aug 21: the protective put returns +$1,289 (5.4%) on $23,711 risked, vs +$2,099 (9.2%) for 100 shares on $22,901. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HON is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if HON hits $250 by Aug 21
+$1,289
+5.4% on $23,711 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,711
Put floors you at $220
Break-even
$237.11
+3.54% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.73 / -8.74 / 36.77
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HON Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $183 (-20%) | -$1,774 | -$1,783 | -$1,766 | -$1,711 |
| $195 (-15%) | -$1,599 | -$1,672 | -$1,730 | -$1,711 |
| $206 (-10%) | -$1,279 | -$1,415 | -$1,579 | -$1,711 |
| $218 (-5%) | -$780 | -$955 | -$1,189 | -$1,711 |
| $224 (-2%) | -$393 | -$572 | -$810 | -$1,268 |
| $229 (0%) โ spot | -$101 | -$275 | -$499 | -$810 |
| $234 (+2%) | +$217 | +$53 | -$148 | -$352 |
| $240 (+5%) | +$736 | +$593 | +$436 | +$335 |
| $250 (+9%) โ target | +$1,527 | +$1,419 | +$1,322 | +$1,289 |
| $263 (+15%) | +$2,732 | +$2,669 | +$2,630 | +$2,625 |
| $275 (+20%) | +$3,821 | +$3,786 | +$3,771 | +$3,770 |
Uses HON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.