Target Price Playground
HON
$229.01
๐ข
HON IV: 30.4% โ LOW
(-55.8% vs 30d avg of 68.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $265 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $230 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.5 ยท ฮ 0.52
LONG PUT ยท $230 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.4 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HON hits $265 by Aug 21: the long straddle returns +$910 (35.1%) on $2,590 risked, vs +$3,599 (15.7%) for 100 shares on $22,901. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HON is at $265. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if HON hits $265 by Aug 21
+$910
+35.1% on $2,590 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,590
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$204.10
-10.88% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
4.38 / -20.19 / 75.56
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HON Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $183 (-20%) | +$2,015 | +$1,999 | +$2,028 | +$2,089 |
| $195 (-15%) | +$1,070 | +$957 | +$901 | +$944 |
| $206 (-10%) | +$338 | +$93 | -$136 | -$201 |
| $218 (-5%) | -$98 | -$464 | -$903 | -$1,346 |
| $224 (-2%) | -$195 | -$608 | -$1,137 | -$2,033 |
| $229 (0%) โ spot | -$189 | -$619 | -$1,178 | -$2,491 |
| $234 (+2%) | -$127 | -$563 | -$1,125 | -$2,231 |
| $240 (+5%) | +$62 | -$359 | -$881 | -$1,544 |
| $252 (+10%) | +$608 | +$250 | -$134 | -$399 |
| $265 (+16%) โ target | +$1,504 | +$1,244 | +$1,018 | +$910 |
| $275 (+20%) | +$2,307 | +$2,112 | +$1,966 | +$1,891 |
Uses HON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.