Target Price Playground
ISRG
$406.78
๐ข
ISRG IV: 36.6% โ LOW
(-37.3% vs 30d avg of 58.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $455 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $405 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $32.0 ยท ฮ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $455 by Sep 18: the long call returns +$1,800 (56.2%) on $3,200 risked, vs +$4,822 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $40,678. Options give 4.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $455. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $455 by Sep 18
+$1,800
+56.2% on $3,200 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$3,200
Premium paid
Break-even
$437.00
+7.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.61 / -22.28 / 69.77
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $325 (-20%) | -$2,883 | -$3,061 | -$3,182 | -$3,200 |
| $346 (-15%) | -$2,545 | -$2,837 | -$3,109 | -$3,200 |
| $366 (-10%) | -$2,003 | -$2,412 | -$2,880 | -$3,200 |
| $386 (-5%) | -$1,225 | -$1,722 | -$2,362 | -$3,200 |
| $399 (-2%) | -$639 | -$1,167 | -$1,867 | -$3,200 |
| $407 (0%) โ spot | -$200 | -$738 | -$1,453 | -$3,022 |
| $415 (+2%) | +$278 | -$262 | -$975 | -$2,208 |
| $427 (+5%) | +$1,060 | +$532 | -$145 | -$988 |
| $447 (+10%) | +$2,525 | +$2,045 | +$1,485 | +$1,046 |
| $455 (+12%) โ target | +$3,113 | +$2,657 | +$2,148 | +$1,800 |
| $468 (+15%) | +$4,158 | +$3,747 | +$3,324 | +$3,080 |
| $488 (+20%) | +$5,919 | +$5,581 | +$5,275 | +$5,114 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.