Target Price Playground
ISRG
$406.78
๐ข
ISRG IV: 36.7% โ LOW
(-37.1% vs 30d avg of 58.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $455 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $405 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $32.0 ยท ฮ 0.57
SHORT CALL ยท $440 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.2 ยท ฮ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $455 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$2,020 (136.5%) on $1,480 risked, vs +$4,822 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $40,678. Options give 11.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $455. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $455 by Sep 18
+$2,020
+136.5% on $1,480 risked
Max Profit
+$2,020
If the stock โฅ $440 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,480
Net debit
Break-even
$419.80
+3.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
18.33 / -0.73 / 5.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $325 (-20%) | -$1,272 | -$1,373 | -$1,463 | -$1,480 |
| $346 (-15%) | -$1,082 | -$1,220 | -$1,399 | -$1,480 |
| $366 (-10%) | -$812 | -$959 | -$1,212 | -$1,480 |
| $386 (-5%) | -$474 | -$590 | -$833 | -$1,480 |
| $399 (-2%) | -$249 | -$328 | -$510 | -$1,480 |
| $407 (0%) โ spot | -$93 | -$143 | -$265 | -$1,302 |
| $415 (+2%) | +$63 | +$46 | -$5 | -$488 |
| $427 (+5%) | +$297 | +$329 | +$390 | +$732 |
| $447 (+10%) | +$666 | +$773 | +$991 | +$2,020 |
| $455 (+12%) โ target | +$793 | +$922 | +$1,178 | +$2,020 |
| $468 (+15%) | +$993 | +$1,149 | +$1,444 | +$2,020 |
| $488 (+20%) | +$1,264 | +$1,442 | +$1,730 | +$2,020 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.