Target Price Playground
ISRG
$404.76
🟢
ISRG IV: 36.6% — LOW
(-37.0% vs 30d avg of 58.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $455 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $405 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $29.7 · Δ 0.56
SHORT CALL · $435 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.7 · Δ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $455 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,800 (150.0%) on $1,200 risked, vs +$5,024 (12.4%) for 100 shares on $40,476. Options give 12.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $455. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $455 by Dec 18
+$1,800
+150.0% on $1,200 risked
Max Profit
+$1,800
If the stock ≥ $435 at expiry
Max Loss
−$1,200
Net debit
Break-even
$417.00
+3.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
17.23 / -3.01 / 5.27
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $324 (-20%) | -$1,026 | -$1,114 | -$1,188 | -$1,200 |
| $344 (-15%) | -$863 | -$986 | -$1,136 | -$1,200 |
| $364 (-10%) | -$630 | -$762 | -$981 | -$1,200 |
| $385 (-5%) | -$336 | -$441 | -$654 | -$1,200 |
| $397 (-2%) | -$140 | -$212 | -$372 | -$1,200 |
| $405 (0%) ← spot | -$5 | -$49 | -$156 | -$1,200 |
| $413 (+2%) | +$132 | +$117 | +$72 | -$414 |
| $425 (+5%) | +$335 | +$365 | +$419 | +$800 |
| $445 (+10%) | +$655 | +$752 | +$944 | +$1,800 |
| $455 (+12%) ← target | +$796 | +$918 | +$1,151 | +$1,800 |
| $465 (+15%) | +$936 | +$1,078 | +$1,332 | +$1,800 |
| $486 (+20%) | +$1,169 | +$1,327 | +$1,572 | +$1,800 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.