Target Price Playground
ISRG
$406.78
๐ข
ISRG IV: 36.7% โ LOW
(-37.1% vs 30d avg of 58.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $360 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $405 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.1 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $360 by Sep 18: the long put returns +$1,790 (66.1%) on $2,710 risked, vs $-4,678 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $40,678. Options give 5.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $360. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $360 by Sep 18
+$1,790
+66.1% on $2,710 risked
Max Profit
+$37,790
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,710
Premium paid
Break-even
$377.90
-7.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.82 / -19.02 / 69.8
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $325 (-20%) | +$5,227 | +$5,158 | +$5,151 | +$5,248 |
| $346 (-15%) | +$3,531 | +$3,348 | +$3,191 | +$3,214 |
| $360 (-12%) โ target | +$2,462 | +$2,196 | +$1,902 | +$1,790 |
| $366 (-10%) | +$2,039 | +$1,739 | +$1,385 | +$1,180 |
| $386 (-5%) | +$783 | +$395 | -$131 | -$854 |
| $399 (-2%) | +$149 | -$270 | -$856 | -$2,074 |
| $407 (0%) โ spot | -$226 | -$655 | -$1,256 | -$2,710 |
| $415 (+2%) | -$562 | -$993 | -$1,591 | -$2,710 |
| $427 (+5%) | -$1,000 | -$1,419 | -$1,981 | -$2,710 |
| $447 (+10%) | -$1,569 | -$1,940 | -$2,385 | -$2,710 |
| $468 (+15%) | -$1,970 | -$2,272 | -$2,581 | -$2,710 |
| $488 (+20%) | -$2,243 | -$2,472 | -$2,664 | -$2,710 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.