Target Price Playground
ISRG
$406.78
๐ข
ISRG IV: 36.6% โ LOW
(-37.3% vs 30d avg of 58.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $406.78 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $385 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.3 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $445 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$2,192 (5.2%) on $42,308 risked, vs +$3,822 (9.4%) for 100 shares on $40,678. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $445 by Sep 18
+$2,192
+5.2% on $42,308 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,808
Put floors you at $385
Break-even
$423.08
+4.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.07 / -18.09 / 67.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $325 (-20%) | -$3,573 | -$3,728 | -$3,849 | -$3,808 |
| $346 (-15%) | -$3,063 | -$3,336 | -$3,650 | -$3,808 |
| $366 (-10%) | -$2,307 | -$2,672 | -$3,163 | -$3,808 |
| $386 (-5%) | -$1,291 | -$1,699 | -$2,270 | -$3,664 |
| $399 (-2%) | -$562 | -$969 | -$1,529 | -$2,444 |
| $407 (0%) โ spot | -$29 | -$426 | -$957 | -$1,630 |
| $415 (+2%) | +$539 | +$158 | -$331 | -$816 |
| $427 (+5%) | +$1,448 | +$1,101 | +$689 | +$404 |
| $445 (+9%) โ target | +$2,890 | +$2,605 | +$2,313 | +$2,192 |
| $468 (+15%) | +$4,876 | +$4,672 | +$4,507 | +$4,472 |
| $488 (+20%) | +$6,747 | +$6,606 | +$6,517 | +$6,506 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.