Target Price Playground
ISRG
$406.78
๐ข
ISRG IV: 36.7% โ LOW
(-37.1% vs 30d avg of 58.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $470 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $405 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $32.0 ยท ฮ 0.57
LONG PUT ยท $405 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.1 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $470 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns +$590 (10.0%) on $5,910 risked, vs +$6,322 (15.5%) for 100 shares on $40,678. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $470. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $470 by Sep 18
+$590
+10.0% on $5,910 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$5,910
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$464.10
+14.09% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
36%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.79 / -41.3 / 139.58
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $325 (-20%) | +$2,344 | +$2,098 | +$1,970 | +$2,048 |
| $346 (-15%) | +$986 | +$511 | +$82 | +$14 |
| $366 (-10%) | +$35 | -$673 | -$1,495 | -$2,020 |
| $386 (-5%) | -$442 | -$1,327 | -$2,493 | -$4,054 |
| $399 (-2%) | -$491 | -$1,438 | -$2,723 | -$5,274 |
| $407 (0%) โ spot | -$426 | -$1,392 | -$2,709 | -$5,732 |
| $415 (+2%) | -$285 | -$1,255 | -$2,566 | -$4,918 |
| $427 (+5%) | +$60 | -$887 | -$2,126 | -$3,698 |
| $447 (+10%) | +$956 | +$106 | -$900 | -$1,664 |
| $470 (+16%) โ target | +$2,337 | +$1,641 | +$937 | +$590 |
| $488 (+20%) | +$3,675 | +$3,109 | +$2,611 | +$2,404 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.