Target Price Playground
ISRG
$406.78
๐ข
ISRG IV: 36.7% โ LOW
(-37.1% vs 30d avg of 58.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $360 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $405 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.1 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $375 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.4 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $360 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,430 (91.1%) on $1,570 risked, vs $-4,678 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $40,678. Options give 7.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $360. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $360 by Sep 18
+$1,430
+91.1% on $1,570 risked
Max Profit
+$1,430
If the stock โค $375 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,570
Net debit
Break-even
$389.30
-4.3% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-15.97 / -2.25 / 11.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $325 (-20%) | +$995 | +$1,128 | +$1,316 | +$1,430 |
| $346 (-15%) | +$719 | +$847 | +$1,081 | +$1,430 |
| $360 (-12%) โ target | +$488 | +$588 | +$795 | +$1,430 |
| $366 (-10%) | +$383 | +$466 | +$643 | +$1,430 |
| $386 (-5%) | +$21 | +$31 | +$55 | +$286 |
| $399 (-2%) | -$194 | -$230 | -$310 | -$934 |
| $407 (0%) โ spot | -$333 | -$397 | -$537 | -$1,570 |
| $415 (+2%) | -$465 | -$554 | -$744 | -$1,570 |
| $427 (+5%) | -$649 | -$768 | -$1,004 | -$1,570 |
| $447 (+10%) | -$913 | -$1,056 | -$1,300 | -$1,570 |
| $468 (+15%) | -$1,118 | -$1,260 | -$1,458 | -$1,570 |
| $488 (+20%) | -$1,270 | -$1,393 | -$1,528 | -$1,570 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.