Target Price Playground
ISRG
$406.78
๐ข
ISRG IV: 36.7% โ LOW
(-37.1% vs 30d avg of 58.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $385 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $405 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $31.95 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $385 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.3 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $385 by Sep 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,341 (85.7%) on $1,565 risked, vs $-2,178 (-5.4%) for 100 shares on $40,678. Options give 15.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $385. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $385 by Sep 18
+$1,341
+85.7% on $1,565 risked
Max Profit
+$1,314
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,547
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$410.44
+0.9% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.28 / 1.62 / 14.95
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $325 (-20%) | +$299 | +$358 | +$398 | +$331 |
| $346 (-15%) | +$238 | +$330 | +$452 | +$438 |
| $366 (-10%) | +$124 | +$233 | +$421 | +$719 |
| $385 (-5%) โ target | -$27 | +$71 | +$260 | +$1,236 |
| $399 (-2%) | -$157 | -$81 | +$64 | +$437 |
| $407 (0%) โ spot | -$241 | -$182 | -$76 | +$41 |
| $415 (+2%) | -$327 | -$288 | -$226 | -$296 |
| $427 (+5%) | -$459 | -$450 | -$456 | -$698 |
| $447 (+10%) | -$675 | -$714 | -$812 | -$1,139 |
| $468 (+15%) | -$873 | -$946 | -$1,093 | -$1,374 |
| $488 (+20%) | -$1,043 | -$1,134 | -$1,287 | -$1,486 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.