Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If KLAC hits $195 by Oct 16: the cash-secured put returns +$900 (5.6%) on $-900 credit (max loss $16,100), vs +$914 (4.9%) for 100 shares on $18,586. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KLAC is at $195. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| KLAC Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $149 (-20%) | -$1,806 | -$1,616 | -$1,387 | -$1,231 |
| $158 (-15%) | -$1,235 | -$1,004 | -$694 | -$302 |
| $167 (-10%) | -$755 | -$499 | -$143 | +$627 |
| $177 (-5%) | -$361 | -$100 | +$261 | +$900 |
| $182 (-2%) | -$164 | +$93 | +$438 | +$900 |
| $186 (0%) โ spot | -$47 | +$204 | +$533 | +$900 |
| $190 (+2%) | +$59 | +$302 | +$611 | +$900 |
| $195 (+5%) โ target | +$195 | +$424 | +$699 | +$900 |
| $204 (+10%) | +$388 | +$586 | +$798 | +$900 |
| $214 (+15%) | +$530 | +$695 | +$851 | +$900 |
| $223 (+20%) | +$635 | +$769 | +$877 | +$900 |