Target Price Playground
KLAC
$185.86
๐ข
KLAC IV: 55.4% โ LOW
(-30.8% vs 30d avg of 80.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $200 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $185.86 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $200 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.9 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If KLAC hits $200 by Oct 16: the covered call returns +$2,704 (15.6%) on $17,296 risked, vs +$1,414 (7.6%) for 100 shares on $18,586. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KLAC is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if KLAC hits $200 by Oct 16
+$2,704
+15.6% on $17,296 risked
Max Profit
+$2,704
If the stock โฅ $200 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$17,296
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$172.96
-6.94% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.04 / 15.87 / -29.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| KLAC Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $149 (-20%) | -$2,640 | -$2,524 | -$2,441 | -$2,427 |
| $158 (-15%) | -$1,863 | -$1,694 | -$1,542 | -$1,498 |
| $167 (-10%) | -$1,150 | -$926 | -$687 | -$569 |
| $177 (-5%) | -$509 | -$233 | +$98 | +$361 |
| $182 (-2%) | -$162 | +$140 | +$522 | +$918 |
| $186 (0%) โ spot | +$55 | +$371 | +$782 | +$1,290 |
| $190 (+2%) | +$259 | +$587 | +$1,022 | +$1,662 |
| $195 (+5%) | +$541 | +$883 | +$1,345 | +$2,219 |
| $200 (+8%) โ target | +$766 | +$1,114 | +$1,588 | +$2,704 |
| $204 (+10%) | +$954 | +$1,306 | +$1,781 | +$2,704 |
| $214 (+15%) | +$1,296 | +$1,643 | +$2,098 | +$2,704 |
| $223 (+20%) | +$1,577 | +$1,907 | +$2,317 | +$2,704 |
Uses KLAC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.